The Case For 'Dollar Backwardation' [View article]
The entire thesis of this article is that gold will go up in value because gold always goes up in value. Ignore the real world in which gold prices are declining. Only believe.
Alpha Natural Resources: Estimating Risk Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
Morningstar recently had an article on S.A. in which they opined that ANR may face solvency problems within the next year. There's also been some widening of their CDS spreads -- nothing dramatic but I'm starting to ask if I should change my investment thesis (currently long ANR).
When I first looked at coal companies, I passed over PCX because it looked like a bankruptcy risk. ANR, ACI, and BTU looked much more stable. But now there's some questioning of ANR's stability as well. I think the next couple of quarters will be important to watch. PCX seems to have been knocked flat on its back by a customer default. That seems like a management failure to me -- such defaults are obvious risks. Management skill in these at-risk companies would seem to be another important factor to analyze.
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
Your article is nothing more than a vehicle for making snide political remarks and innuendos. You claim the Tea Party has ridden to the rescue and is cutting back spending and preventing the Federal Reserve from applying monetary stimulus. To which I reply, Hogwash. The Tea Party is straining at to break free of the fiscal restraints imposed by the debt ceiling agreement and is already introducing spending bills that would drive deep deficits. Nor are they influencing the actions of the Federal Reserve. That's pure fabrication.
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
You're evading both the questions and the truth. Twist was a monetary stimulus. Republicans have always been big spenders and the Tea Party, as a more extreme version of Republicans, are proving themselves to be even bigger spenders. And spending during an election year is the oldest gimmick in the book.
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
"prior to this past year, the Obama and the Bernanke were committed to pursuing aggressive forms of fiscal and monetary policy. Now, with the tea party running the House of Representatives, the U.S. in an election year, and the job market still weak despite nearly 2 years of aggressive stimulus, the Fed has not pursued any new monetary stimulus programs of recent."
This is not only lame, it's factually inaccurate.
Do you somehow think the t-frosh are controlling the Fed? What do you think Twist is? If you're trying to sneak in political propaganda that the t-party is somehow fiscally responsible, explain why they've just introduced a budget bill to spend billions on weapons that the Pentagon says it doesn't want and doesn't need. And why, pray tell, are these same tea party Reps so desperate to break the debt-ceiling deal so they can spend spend spend? That's the inaccurate.
As for the lameness, your snide implication that spending is on hold because it's an election year is ridiculous on its face. Any candidate who wanted re-election desperately would be spending like crazy. Ask yourself yet again, why are the tea party Reps spending like crazy? Hint: it's an election year.
Take it for what it's worth, but chatter across the wires says Angela Merkel has made a verbal bank deposit guarantee for the entire eurozone. [View news story]
Take it for what it's worth, but chatter across the wires says Angela Merkel has made a verbal bank deposit guarantee for the entire eurozone. [View news story]
Twitter is the wires. Somehow that realization seems more important than any rumor out of Europe.
Europe rapidly deteriorates, the Stoxx 50 -3%, led by Italy, -3.8%, and Spain, -3.2%. The euro goes bidless, sliding under $1.26 for the first time since August 2010. S&P 500 -1.1%. [View news story]
Facebook (FB), CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and the IPO underwriters face a class-action suit by shareholders over accusations they concealed from investors "a severe and pronounced reduction" in the company's revenue growth forecasts. [View news story]
Gold can only act as a currency if people are willing to give and to accept it as payment. I certainly would not want to be paid in something as awkward and illiquid as gold. Something I have to chemically verify? No thank you! There are a small group of fanatics who claim to think of gold as a fantasy currency in an imagined world that does not exist but I doubt even these people would exchange their god, I mean their gold, for actual goods and services. They see the gold as magical and see goods and services as mundane. All these claims about how they're going to be rich from their gold are just so much nonsense because they'd never part with (spend) a gram of it. They'd rather starve.
Japan reports holding a net $3.19T in foreign assets at the end of 2011, hanging on to its position as the world's top creditor nation. The position marks a rise from 2010, which may also dampen expectations on China overtaking the Japanese as the number one creditor anytime soon. [View news story]
Here's a table that shows US trade balance since 1960 (Col 2): http://1.usa.gov/KjJh3g You can see the big decrease in trade balance from around -100B pre-internet bubble to below -700B at the peak of the housing bubble. We're floating back up with balance around -500B but there's a question of whether that trend will continue. I like trade balance as an indicator of economic health. You can see the extent to which it would have shown the vulnerability of the housing bubble in 2006 as a false economy that was based on a runaway (and unsustainable) trade imbalance.
Japan reports holding a net $3.19T in foreign assets at the end of 2011, hanging on to its position as the world's top creditor nation. The position marks a rise from 2010, which may also dampen expectations on China overtaking the Japanese as the number one creditor anytime soon. [View news story]
Tack, I agree with most of this. And in fact you're echoing my own comment rather than disagreeing with it when you point out the significance of USD as the world's reserve currency. It's likely the USD won't be the world's reserve currency forever, but even so, there's every reason to think the USD will enjoy a continued special status and strength.
As I see it, the argument for continued strength of the USD is the expectation of future potential. The U.S. is and continues to be an economic powerhouse and a source of global dynamism. It can afford to be a debtor nation and a net importer for as long as that is perceived to be the case. I prefer to use the word "perception" because in the end that's what motivates people to hoard USD. But it doesn't at all imply that i don't think the perception is well aligned with the reality.
If you go back and read my post, i think you'll see that there's not that much difference between what I wrote and what you just wrote. As long as there's a market for USD, that market need not be a domestic one. The situation w/the Yen is different and that's what i was addressing. Where I disagree is that the *extent* of the U.S. trade deficit is irrelevant. It over-lubricated the global economy during the bubble and is now needed as a way to lubricate it again to facilitate a global recovery but its magnitude is worrisome and puts the U.S. at risk. We can't expect to grow the trade deficit indefinitely w/o repercussions. Fortunately, we do seem to be rectifying the trade deficit. Domestic energy production is increasing and businesses are choosing to repatriate production. I think it's already coming back into balance -- returning to a more modest and healthy level.
Why Halliburton May Not Be As Undervalued As You Think [View article]
Very useful article. I've been watching HAL for awhile and finally sold June 29 puts yesterday. I like the trends in their financials (increasing profitability and cash flow) but of course in any commodities-related company, there's cyclicality and I think I've not been giving that enough respect. Your article lists solid reasons for caution.
winningtrader, sorry but you're making a circular argument. "The price of gold is a simple demand/supply situation" is exactly my point. People who believe gold has semi-magical properties say things like "gold has enduring value" even as the market price for gold is crashing. This sort of reverence for gold constitutes a denial that gold is subject to the principles of supply and demand and to the vagaries of the market.
The Case For 'Dollar Backwardation' [View article]
Alpha Natural Resources: Estimating Risk Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
When I first looked at coal companies, I passed over PCX because it looked like a bankruptcy risk. ANR, ACI, and BTU looked much more stable. But now there's some questioning of ANR's stability as well. I think the next couple of quarters will be important to watch. PCX seems to have been knocked flat on its back by a customer default. That seems like a management failure to me -- such defaults are obvious risks. Management skill in these at-risk companies would seem to be another important factor to analyze.
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
More fabrication.
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
Why Europe Could Cause The Next Down Leg In The Market Even As The European Economy Remains Stabile [View article]
This is not only lame, it's factually inaccurate.
Do you somehow think the t-frosh are controlling the Fed? What do you think Twist is? If you're trying to sneak in political propaganda that the t-party is somehow fiscally responsible, explain why they've just introduced a budget bill to spend billions on weapons that the Pentagon says it doesn't want and doesn't need. And why, pray tell, are these same tea party Reps so desperate to break the debt-ceiling deal so they can spend spend spend? That's the inaccurate.
As for the lameness, your snide implication that spending is on hold because it's an election year is ridiculous on its face. Any candidate who wanted re-election desperately would be spending like crazy. Ask yourself yet again, why are the tea party Reps spending like crazy? Hint: it's an election year.
Take it for what it's worth, but chatter across the wires says Angela Merkel has made a verbal bank deposit guarantee for the entire eurozone. [View news story]
Take it for what it's worth, but chatter across the wires says Angela Merkel has made a verbal bank deposit guarantee for the entire eurozone. [View news story]
Europe rapidly deteriorates, the Stoxx 50 -3%, led by Italy, -3.8%, and Spain, -3.2%. The euro goes bidless, sliding under $1.26 for the first time since August 2010. S&P 500 -1.1%. [View news story]
Facebook (FB), CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and the IPO underwriters face a class-action suit by shareholders over accusations they concealed from investors "a severe and pronounced reduction" in the company's revenue growth forecasts. [View news story]
Why I Am Short Gold: 5 Reasons [View article]
Japan reports holding a net $3.19T in foreign assets at the end of 2011, hanging on to its position as the world's top creditor nation. The position marks a rise from 2010, which may also dampen expectations on China overtaking the Japanese as the number one creditor anytime soon. [View news story]
Japan reports holding a net $3.19T in foreign assets at the end of 2011, hanging on to its position as the world's top creditor nation. The position marks a rise from 2010, which may also dampen expectations on China overtaking the Japanese as the number one creditor anytime soon. [View news story]
As I see it, the argument for continued strength of the USD is the expectation of future potential. The U.S. is and continues to be an economic powerhouse and a source of global dynamism. It can afford to be a debtor nation and a net importer for as long as that is perceived to be the case. I prefer to use the word "perception" because in the end that's what motivates people to hoard USD. But it doesn't at all imply that i don't think the perception is well aligned with the reality.
If you go back and read my post, i think you'll see that there's not that much difference between what I wrote and what you just wrote. As long as there's a market for USD, that market need not be a domestic one. The situation w/the Yen is different and that's what i was addressing. Where I disagree is that the *extent* of the U.S. trade deficit is irrelevant. It over-lubricated the global economy during the bubble and is now needed as a way to lubricate it again to facilitate a global recovery but its magnitude is worrisome and puts the U.S. at risk. We can't expect to grow the trade deficit indefinitely w/o repercussions. Fortunately, we do seem to be rectifying the trade deficit. Domestic energy production is increasing and businesses are choosing to repatriate production. I think it's already coming back into balance -- returning to a more modest and healthy level.
Why Halliburton May Not Be As Undervalued As You Think [View article]
Why I Am Short Gold: 5 Reasons [View article]