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  • Let's Stop All The Pretending [View article]
    Ahhhh that is the question .... what is the important US equity trend right now? Odds favor yet more downside in May-Aug/12, so is that the trend?
    May 23 11:15 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    Ok, will be interesting to see the comparisons.
    May 23 11:02 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): FQ2 EPS of $0.98 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $30.69B (-3% Y/Y) beats by $770M. Expects FQ3 EPS of $0.94-$0.97, below $1.02 consensus. Expects FY12 EPS of $4.05-$4.10, above $4.03 consensus. Shares +7.1% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    The usual wall street joke and attempt to pump and dump. Meaningless drivel on "the beat front". Did not check the numbers but reportedly HPQ was actually down over 30% on Q1/11 to Q1/12 . Some beat. Let us suggest that the lying wall street talking heads take a actual 30% salary and bonus reduction and see how they spin that one at home to the wife and kids.
    May 23 10:49 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mostly left unsaid about the JPMorgan trading loss is the most crucial point, writes Sallie Krawchek: The size and risk of the trade was identified not by management, but by the press, and then it took weeks for JPM to put a number on the loss. And this from one of the savvier management teams. Regulators need to take note before heaping more complexity on an already incredibly complex business.  [View news story]
    The financial engineers don't want transparency and clarity. How else could they make excessive fees, offload risk on to others, and continue to make their billions in profits and bonuses?
    May 23 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Trading Ahead Of Q1 Earnings [View article]
    OK, but April & May/12 have not turned out well for markets. Probably should have been even worse, but that may be coming in June-Aug/12.
    May 23 10:04 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying VIX Calls As A Portfolio Hedge [View article]
    Very interesting. Need to check this out further.
    May 23 05:40 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Best Options Strategies, According To Academia [View article]
    Good article. Selling OTM puts has worked very well for a few years now. But current markets have run up, so we switched to buying puts in April/12 and that has also worked very well. Just closed some today for 2-3x returns.
    May 23 05:23 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe rapidly deteriorates, the Stoxx 50 -3%, led by Italy, -3.8%, and Spain, -3.2%. The euro goes bidless, sliding under $1.26 for the first time since August 2010. S&P 500 -1.1%.  [View news story]
    Amazing market day ... Asia down 1-2%, EU down 2-3% .... US down 1.5% until the stick save into the last couple of hours and US finishes up.
    May 23 04:51 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Ready For A Buying Frenzy [View article]
    tw4u,
    OK so 08/09 and 00/01 can never happen again? Got it. But isn't that what all the stocks always go up forever types said then too? Time will tell, but that's not a bet most would make.
    May 22 09:53 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury ETF Rally Threatens Stocks [View article]
    So who is buying Treasuries. Likely very very little from small investors. But plenty from central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and other large investors who can and probably will hold to maturity. They are a lot less concerned about making money and more concerned about getting their money back.
    May 22 09:48 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Yep for the vast majority of lazy and uninformed investors out there, which is probably most of the individual investors, index funds make a lot of sense. Of course for those individual investors willing to put in the time and effort, which is a very small minority, they maybe can outperform.
    May 22 09:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market In Trouble? [View article]
    Don't think a piece of crap like UVXY is predictive of anything. The real VIX maybe, but not these extremely poorly designed VIX related ETF's and ETN's which do a pretty poor job of anything expect making the funds money and perhaps a few big professional traders.
    May 22 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Deposit Guarantee, Increased ECB Role On Table [View article]
    Interesting conjecture. One has to think it has to get much worse in the EU before Germany totally caves in. But rumors will drive markets up an down for months to come yet. More borrowing cannot be a viable solution to too much existing debt, but the EU and US politicians either don't have the brains or the guts to honestly start the real type of structural fixes that would make a difference over time.
    May 22 09:34 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Royal Dutch Shell Belongs In Your Portfolio [View article]
    OT,
    OK, thanks for the reply and guesstimates. Our guesstimate is oil to maybe $75-80 lows between now and year-end and US markets at least re-test the 2011 lows. Oil is already darn close to $90 now and the world marco headwinds look to be getting worse by the day now. Looking like the US$ is going to keep moving up with all the world macro concerns. Got to guess that RDS.B goes lower, maybe back to $60 or even lower, with the rest of world markets. But likely would sell well OTM puts if RDS keep moving lower rather than try a share buy. Problem is that not much activity in the RDS puts, at least at this point anyway.
    May 22 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Ready For A Buying Frenzy [View article]
    J,
    In order to answer that type of question, one has to consider the overall investment environment and country and world macro conditions. In a normal environment, sure PE=11 and PEG=1.38 would be pretty reasonable. Is it a normal investment environment (do fundamentals even really matter right now)? With the Fed and central banks printing trillions and massively easing. With the federal government running $1.5 trillion annual deficits. Much of which is flowing through to corporate earnings. Are corporate earnings and near record corporate profit margins sustainable? Will declining markets drag even the multi-nationals share prices down? What happens if the big traders being prop desks, HFT boys, banks, etc. have to start liquidating their winners to cover losses on their ever increasing losers?

    Sure MSFT is a good company, but it is also trading at near decade high share prices and price ranges as well, excluding the dotcom bubble highs. .

    Would be willing to bet that MSFT moves to quite a bit lower price levels, such as $25 and down, before it moves significantly such as say $35-$40/share. But if you want to treat it as a LT investment and bet it will go much higher, then that's your call and your money. It's just not a bet that we would be willing to make with MSFT at about $30/share.
    May 22 08:33 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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