Paulo Santos'  Instablog

I really believe my readers, especially those long Apple (AAPL) deserve a mea culpa. I believed, based on the data available at the time (right before earnings), with close to 1/3rd of Apple's Q1 sales base having reported, that iPhone sales were tracking well below Street estimates.

And yet, Apple delivered another incredible blowout. Certainly, helped by a monstrous quarter out of China, where demand for Apple's products, even at pretty high prices, is still enormous. Granted, there is now a vast Chinese middle to upper class that really has the means to buy Apple, but it's still surprising that they all got out running at the drop of a hat.

Again, I missed this call. Badly. But would I do it the same again if presented with the same information? Yes, I'd have to. One has to play the market logically, even if some calls will be wrong some times. For me, I must say, it could have been worse. I was contemplating taking the short trade. I only avoided a loss on the trade because I couldn't locate any OTM puts that were cheap enough to compensate for the risk. This is a lesson, even a trade that seems rather safe needs not only the odds, but also the pricing to match it. I didn't have the pricing though I thought I had the odds. So I didn't take the trade. Of course, in hindsight maybe the odds weren't great either. Maybe I should have known that China's middle/upper class was chomping at the bit to buy every iPhone they could gather (even though they didn't do the same for the iPad).

Finally, Apple was the iPhone before this quarter. That's even truer today, after this earnings report.

And again, yes, I got this one wrong. Mea culpa.

(I am posting this as an Instablog, since I really shouldn't be earning the pageviews on this one. I expect to do better - and mostly will do better - in my calls)

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Well, it's a bit of an understatement. It's more like Microsoft (MSFT) might throw the Windows Phone 7 vendors under a bus. Nokia (NOK) just happens to be the largest of them, and the tightest knit with Microsoft, as well as the more needy of its success.

Why am I saying this in the same week where AT&T (T) is saying that the Lumia 900 is exceeding expectations and some stores seem to have run out of stock? I'm saying it because, if rumors are to be believed, Microsoft might just pull another blunder that can easily freeze Windows Phone sales in the next few months.

The blunder is simple - several sources are saying that the present generation Windows Phones will not be upgraded to Windows Phone Apollo / 8. So anyone buying a Windows Phone today, even the Lumia 900, is bound to find it obsolete and with no upgrade path before the year is out. This would certainly be a sales killer as soon as knowledge of it spreads.

Still, this isn't entirely guaranteed. There are other sources claiming exactly the opposite, that Apollo will indeed be available to every phone currently running Windows Phone 7. Microsoft, however, is not making things clear. Microsoft is saying that all apps currently on the marketplace will run in Windows Phone Apollo, but this is not the problem that was originally rumored. The problem is that today's phones might not get the Apollo upgrade.

Conclusion

It would be wise for Microsoft to clear this mess up and state clearly and unambiguously that the present Windows Phones will get the Apollo upgrade. It might even be that they will really get the upgrade, but the rumor is out there that they won't and such can easily freeze sales. So, again, it would be wise for Microsoft to clear things up officially and declare that the upgrade will hit the present phones, lest it drive a nail through Nokia's coffin if it doesn't.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

For instance, the number of diluted shares will be around 2.395 billion shares. This allows us to calculate the following market capitalizations, given the price where Facebook trades at:

And the price for a $100 billion market capitalization? $41.75. Which would also be our best guess for the level at which the IPO will price. But obviously it will trade much higher once trading begins.

Now, we also get to know how many shares Mark Zuckerberg has, including his stock options. The number is 0.5338 billion shares.

And thus, this is how wealthy Mark Zuckerberg will be and his position on the Forbes list of billionaires:

Not bad for 6 years' worth of work, I must say! At any rate, Mark Zuckerberg will be wealthier than Google's (GOOG) Larry Page and Sergey Brin, which tie for 24th in Forbe's list. But he won't menace Oracle's (ORCL) Larry Ellison over in 5th, and much less Microsoft's (MSFT) Bill Gates in 2nd. Not, that is, unless Facebook really surprises and goes up more than 67% from a $100 billion initial valuation.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.