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Paulo Santos

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  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Yes, if possible one should buy every IPO (if one can get allocation), and then sell in the first session. Even FB had a 0-12% return if one did that.

    Read this: http://seekingalpha.co...

    OXF seems like it will have a rough time, like most coal producers. I'll try doing a new series tomorrow on several coal producers.
    May 22 09:07 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, when they reach scale, doing like Zynga can actually present better economics for them than taking 100% of the capacity in-house. This happens because a lot of the capacity would otherwise sit idle.

    I believe a lot of companies will end up reaching the insight I describe above.
    May 22 08:49 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Avoiding IPOs makes no sense. Avoiding holding IPO stock after the first session, now that's something altogether different.
    May 22 08:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    In the midst of many contracts it's always possible to have some ties like these, they don't look like terminal stuff given the values. The coal contract seems the worst, but that's spread over several years.
    May 22 06:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    If natural gas stays low for 2 years, maybe. The sector could conceivably become a wasteland if that happens.
    May 22 06:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Over the longer term one should see higher exports, but the retiring of some coal units and the lack of new coal units will be somewhat worrying, yes. Still, what I expect to drive coal longer term will be natural gas going meaningfully higher, like $4-$5 at least, maybe higher.

    All in all I am not expecting coal to trade like it did during 2007/2008 or 2010, even though I expect it to go higher.
    May 22 04:23 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    I don't panic on rumors, I try to avoid standing in their way - that's the reason why I didn't go long JRCC or PCX.
    May 22 03:26 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Where do I deny natural gas rallied strongly? Hell, I was long natural gas for almost the entirety of that rally ... coal can't rally with natural gas yet, because the first part of the rally was just to re-establish equilibrium. From now on if natural gas continues, THEN it helps coal go up as well.
    May 22 03:26 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    It might be a false rumor, but Mark, you're clearly showing strong signs of the Nile ... :-)
    May 22 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Well I'm not as optimistic as you, regarding PCX.
    May 22 03:04 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
    I respect yours too, but if sales commissions aren't obvious expenses, then what are they? That's a good part of the marketing line as per AMZN, and a good part of the technology line is keeping the lines on at AWS, as per Credit Suisse.
    May 22 02:50 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
    Yes, I knew the impact was huge, that's why I was calling into question using obvious expenses as investments.
    May 22 02:39 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Still, whatever it was, it did soil the sector, and even if it recovered somewhat, it didn't recover completely.
    May 22 02:32 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    There will be some doing that as well, in time.
    May 22 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    PCX provided an update, didn't say much new, but didn't confirm the reestructuring rumor, so it's going back up and taking the whole sector with it, again:

    http://yhoo.it/K9mMwR

    Still, weird trading - seems like it was a bear raid on the whole sector. Or a pure, natural, panic.
    May 22 02:25 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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