Bill Maurer's  Instablog

I've heard some requests from readers looking to find past Editor's Picks articles easier. So for my loyal followers, I will use my Instablog here to post any of my articles that have received the Editor's Pick tag. If and when I receive any more, they will be posted here too. I will go in reverse chronological order, so the newer ones will be closer to the top.

Skeptical of Amazon At These Levels - Why Amazon (AMZN) is a good short candidate after its Q1 earnings report and subsequent rally.

Deckers: The Latest High-Growth Stock to Collapse - Analyzes how Deckers (DECK), the company behind UGGs, has fallen after a warm winter, and how the problems may be more than just short-term.

Will Apple Be Helped Or Hurt By Facebook? - Analyzes the impact on holding Apple (AAPL) stock through Facebook's (FB) IPO, expected sometime during 2012.

Boston Beer: Flavor and Growth Make For a Winning Investment - Analyzes the Boston Beer (SAM) company, producer of the flagship Samuel Adams brand.

Apple: P/E Debate Rages, But Sales Growth Will Fuel Next Rally - Analyzes why Apple's sales have a bigger impact on stock price than earnings do.

End of Crocs, Or Great Buying Opportunity? - Analyzes the position of footwear retailer Crocs (CROX), after a bad earnings report and guidance sent shares down 35%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL over the next 72 hours.

The race is heating up. What race you ask? Well, when Apple (AAPL) first hit $500 a few months ago, I started a five stock race to $1,000. At the last update, Apple was around $610, and was in third place, trailing high flying Priceline (PCLN) and stagnant Google (GOOG). The two other competitors in the race, surgical robot maker Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Mastercard (MA), were a little further behind.

Well, we've now been through the heart of earnings season. Intuitive Surgical reported a great quarter, sending shares to nearly $600 before backing off. After Thursday's rally, Intuitive stands at $575, not too far behind Apple and Google. I stand by my prediction that Intuitive will reach $700 sometime in 2013. However, for purposes of this race, I don't think Intuitive can keep up with some of the other powerhouses.

Mastercard hit a 52-week high on Thursday at $445, and my prediction was that the credit card giant would hit $500 this year. It currently is last in the race, but it is putting up a good fight. Since the company is expected to post double digit revenue and earnings growth this year and next, shares still could run from here, but for them to double, it probably will take a bit of time. Mastercard has the least chance of winning this race, but anything is possible.

Now, I'll focus briefly on the third place name. It's Google. No, not Apple anymore after Wednesday. Google is actually behind Apple in the race, although it only is a few cents behind. While Google is showing plenty of revenue and earnings growth, I recently argued that the company is going the wrong way. Why? Well, Google has not been able to improve its margins over the past few years, and the company is trading at a more expensive valuation than Apple, while offering less growth. Also, the company's announcement for a "stock split" left some investors questioning their positions. Google isn't quite splitting, so shares will stay at their high nominal price for some time. I've argued for months that they need a split to get things going, but this wasn't what I was looking for. Google shares are actually down since the start of 2010, while the NASDAQ index is up almost 35%.

Now onto the second place name. After their very good earnings report, Apple jumped nearly $50 to close back at $610. Shares had been under pressure lately after rumors that iPhone sales would be very light, as a couple of the major US phone carriers had reported activation numbers that were well below previous quarter numbers. However, Apple started selling the iPhone 4S in Mainland China during the quarter, which helped to offset the decrease in US iPhone sales. After a week or two of declines which had many fearing Apple's run could be over, Apple cemented its place as the biggest and best company in the market today, and it is likely to trade that way for the indefinite future.

So what does Apple need to do to get to $1,000? Well, if we give Apple an earnings multiple of 15, which I think is fair going forward (for my targets now I am using 14 just for this year and next), Apple would need $66.67 of earnings to reach $1,000. I think that is a little of a stretch for their next fiscal year (ending September 2013), so I would think that Apple could hit $1,000 in the following fiscal year, if their growth continues its upward trend. My guess for $1,000 would be sometime in March to July of 2014.

So that leaves just one company, the current leader in the clubhouse. Like Apple, Priceline had been beaten down lately, falling from a $775 high to just $678 earlier this week. After a nearly $40 rise on Thursday, Priceline is back to just under $725. It leads both Google and Apple by about $115. Given that Priceline has a market cap of just $36 billion, it would seem logical that the company could easily rally by the roughly 33% it needs to hit $1,000. Priceline's market cap is the lowest of the big three, and with revenue and earnings growth for this year and next forecasted at more than 20% each year, it is entirely possible that Priceline could hit $1,000 either late this year or in 2013. Priceline reports its quarterly results on May 9th, and a good result could send the stock above $800.

Apple is back into 2nd place currently, and it is going to give Priceline a run for its money. Everyone loves Apple again, and it seems that new highs in the name are coming soon. However, it is still well behind Priceline in the race to $1,000, and I think Apple's size will make it harder to catch up. The smaller and more nimble Priceline can take a huge step forward next month when it reports its earnings. A great report will shine a huge light on the name, as it will be reporting towards the end of earnings season. With a good report, added attention should push the name to a new high.

Disclosure: I am long TYP.

As some of my followers may notice, I haven't got a ton of articles out lately. I have been a bit busy lately, so I haven't had a lot of time to write. But don't worry, I am fine. I'll give you a small hint. The Yankees have been playing at home recently.

Anyway, I'm mostly back! Next week, I'll be back to 100% writing, and by next month, I expect to be writing more than ever.

I did release a new article this morning on Apple (AAPL), so feel free to check it out:

Should you Buy Apple Pre-Earnings?

I will be writing a few articles over the next day or two, and while I won't say which way I'll be leaning, I'll give you a few hints as to what I'll be writing about.

• Expect an article on Google (GOOG), and its earnings from last week, as well as the "stock split".
• Probably will have something on First Solar's (FSLR) reorganization plan.
• Potentially an article on Research in Motion (RIMM), but that is not definite yet. Might need to wait till next week on that one.
• Possibly will cover the earnings today from Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). If I don't get one out for tomorrow, it will definitely be out next week.
• Something in the consumer goods sector. Think Deckers (DECK), SodaStream (SODA), or Green Mountain (GMCR).
• Might cover the auto makers, as I was at the NY Auto Show last week. So possibly something on Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Toyota (TM), and the like.

Disclosure: I am long FSLR.

Additional disclosure: Long FSLR at time of writing, but potentially will exit position by 4/19.